I found two Luckie papers on alias resolution. The one on MERLIN seems a bit limited as it relies on multicast mrinfo. The one on MIDAR looks promising as it appears to be an improved version of Ally, which uses monotinic IP ID detection to identify interfaces belonging to the same router. I need an estimate of what proportion of aliases are found.
A scamper run was carried out using the same initial port numbers for old < 99% and new 99% MDA. It turned out however from existing data that when running new MDA scamper fails to probe nodes which were found to be load balancers by the old < 99% mode. It is unclear at this stage what might cause this to happen. Some debugging analysis will be necessary to understand this.
A comparison between analyses carried out at different times was carried out, where the varying port bits ran in their original incomplete bit variation mode, and then random intial port values were used as well as bit flipping. The initial mode gave a larger number of null returns. This is an unexpected result. The latter mode gave a larger number of load balancers as might be expected, however it may be necessary to carry out this comparison in the same scamper run.
Further work was carried out on churn analysis to add a more complete range of result categories.